Forecast for Thursday 12/24

Today (Christmas Eve): Generally overcast, but not quite as cold. Highs ranging from 33 along the lakeshore...to 29 in Buffalo...to 27 north and east.

Tonight: Decreasing cloud cover, especially after midnight. Becoming windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 40 mph toward morning. Lows ranging from 33 along the lakeshore and in the higher terrain...to 25 in Buffalo...to around 20 north and east and in the sheltered valleys of the Southern Tier.

Tomorrow (Christmas): Increasing clouds with rain developing around 2-3PM. Rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in some elevated interior valleys across the Southern Tier. Becoming very windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 55 mph later in the day. Highs ranging from 40 along the lakeshore...to 37 in Buffalo...to 35 in some elevated Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow Night: Steady rain ending by 7PM, but remaining overcast with a chance of showers for the rest of the night. Very windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 60 mph at times...mainly through midnight. Temperatures holding steady around 40 near the lakeshore...to 37 in Buffalo...to 35 in some elevated Southern Tier valleys.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, mainly through 2-3PM. Diminishing winds along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures steady or slowly falling through the 30s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and colder with an increasing chance of snow showers. Localized areas of heavier lake effect snow developing in the evening...mainly south of Buffalo. High near 29. Low near 25.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers. Localized areas of heavier lake effect snow...mainly south of Buffalo. High near 27. Low near 23.

Tuesday: Partly sunny windy and very cold with a chance of snow showers. High near 20. Low near 16.

Forecast for Wednesday 12/23

Today: Clouds and limited sun with a chance of snow showers, mainly to the north and east of Buffalo. Sunshine will be a bit more prevalent across the Southern Tier. Brisk and cold with highs ranging from 25 in Buffalo to 21 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, mainly to the north and east of Buffalo. Lows ranging from the mid 20s along the lakeshore to near 20 in Buffalo...but dipping well into the teens in Southern Tier valleys.

Christmas Eve: Mostly cloudy with a chance of early morning snow showers to the north and east of Buffalo. Becoming mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs ranging from 32 along the lakeshore...to 29 in Buffalo...to 27 north and east.

Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon...steadiest from 1PM until 4PM. Rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in some elevated interior valleys across the Southern Tier. High near 37. Low near 25.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain likely, possibly changing to snow late in the day. High near 40. Low near 35.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers and areas of lake effect snow. High near 28. Low near 24.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers and areas of lake effect snow. High near 23. Low near 19.

Special Notice

I will be away at Jay Peak VT from today into early next week. My next scheduled forecast will be posted on Tuesday, December 22nd. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, and thank you for your understanding.

Justin

Forecast for Tuesday 12/15

Today: Mostly cloudy and turning colder. Patchy drizzle gradually changing to a mix of drizzle and very light snow, with some pockets of freezing drizzle in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. A chance of heavier snow showers and perhaps a few snow squalls after 4PM. Temperatures slowly dropping to near 33 in Buffalo and 31 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with a good chance of snow showers and a few scattered snow squalls. Activity becoming focused mainly north and east of Buffalo during the late night hours. An inch or two of accumulation in most spots, but locally up to 4" where snow squalls persist. Lows ranging from 25 in Buffalo to 21 in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures holding steady in the mid 20s in Buffalo and the lower 20s across the higher terrain.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers. Heavier lake effect snow developing across northern Chautauqua, northern Cattaraugus, and southern Erie Counties with several inches of accumulation possible. Lows ranging from 23 in Buffalo to 19 in the higher terrain.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a good chance of snow showers and localized areas of heavier lake effect snow. Highs ranging from 19 in Batavia, to 22 in Buffalo, to the mid 20s near the Chautauqua County shoreline.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High near 22. Low near 17.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold. High near 23. Low near 17.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. High near 24. Low near 19.

Forecast for Monday 12/13

Today: Mostly cloudy skies. Patchy fog/mist in the higher terrain south of Buffalo this morning. A chance of rain showers after 4PM. Highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: A chance of rain showers until 10PM, then remaining mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle. Areas of dense fog developing in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures holding steady from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and turning colder. Patchy drizzle gradually changing to a mix of drizzle and very light snow, with some pockets of freezing drizzle in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. A chance of heavier snow showers after 4PM. Temperatures slowly dropping to near 35 in Buffalo and 31 in the higher terrain.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with occasional snow showers. High near 27. Low near 23.

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds, cold. A chance of snow showers and local lake snows, mainly south of Lake Ontario. High near 25. Low near 20.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance of snow showers. High near 24. Low near 18.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds with a chance of snow showers. High near 26. Low near 17.

Forecast for Sunday 12/12

Today: Overcast and breezy with rain likely, steadiest from 10AM-1PM. Patchy freezing rain in the elevated valleys inland from the lake through midday. Precipitation may change to snow in the higher terrain during the mid to late afternoon, but little to no accumulation is expected. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph possible along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo during the morning. Highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Overcast with patchy light snow and drizzle...becoming primarily drizzle after midnight. Pockets of freezing drizzle possible in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Lows ranging from 33 in Buffalo to 29 in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow: Overcast with patchy drizzle. Pockets of freezing drizzle possible in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Highs ranging from 36 in Buffalo to 32 in the higher terrain.

Tuesday: Overcast with patchy light snow and drizzle. Pockets of freezing drizzle possible in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 36. Low near 33.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with occasional snow showers. High near 25. Low near 21.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 21. Low near 15.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. More widespread snow showers developing at night. High near 22. Low near 12.

Forecast for Saturday 12/12

Today: Lingering lake snows lifting north out of ski country, possibly reaching the Buffalo metro area late in the morning. Local accumulation of an inch or two possible. Skies clearing from south to north during the afternoon. Not as cold with highs ranging from 31 in Buffalo to 27 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Mostly clear early in the evening with a rapid increase in cloud cover toward midnight. Becoming a bit breezy along the lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Low near 20 in Buffalo but dropping well into the teens in Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow: Overcast with a period of snow and sleet likely, beginning during the mid to late morning and continuing through the first half of the afternoon. Precipitation may mix with or change to rain along the lakeshore. An inch or two of accumulation possible, mainly above 1000 feet in elevation. Breezy with highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Monday: Patchy light snow or freezing drizzle in the morning. A steadier snow arriving late in the day or at night. High near 36. Low near 32.

Tuesday: A chance of snow early in the morning, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers and locally heavier lake snows redeveloping at night. High near 35. Low near 30.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and locally significant lake snows. High near 25. Low near 21.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and locally significant lake snows. High near 21. Low near 15.

Forecast for Friday 12/11

Today: Heavy lake effect snow extending from northern Chautauqua County eastward across southern Erie and Wyoming Counties through mid-morning...then slowly settling south into ski country by early to mid-afternoon. Additional accumulation ranging from 3-6" across the south towns to 6-12" across the remainder of the region with locally heavier amounts...especially in the Boston Hills. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts to near 50 mph, resulting in extensive blowing and drifting with near blizzard conditions at times. Highs ranging from 21 in Buffalo to 17 in the higher terrain with wind chills ranging from 5 above to 5 below zero.

Tonight: Lake effect snow continuing across ski country with an additional 4-8" of accumulation. Partly to mostly cloudy across the rest of the region. Brisk and cold with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures holding steady in the upper teens and lower 20s.

Tomorrow: Lingering lake snows lifting northward out of ski country, possibly reaching the Buffalo metro area late in the morning. Local accumulation of an inch or two possible. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and not as cold with highs ranging from 31 in Buffalo to 27 in the higher terrain.

Sunday: Generally overcast with rain arriving late in the morning, possibly beginning as a period of snow. Patchy freezing rain possible in the higher terrain. High near 35. Low near 20.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High near 35. Low near 30.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and localized lake snows, mainly later in the day. Becoming windy and colder. Early high near 35 with temperatures dropping into the 20s during the day.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and localized lake snows. High near 25. Low near 21.

Forecast for Thursday 12/10

Today: Lake effect snow settling into northern Chautauqua, southern Erie, and western Wyoming Counties this morning...then lifting north and becoming focused from the Buffalo south towns eastward along the Wyoming/Genesee County line this afternoon. Snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour with thunder and lightning after 1PM. Around a foot of snow expected where the band becomes focused this afternoon with extensive blowing and drifting and near blizzard conditions at times. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts over 50 mph. Highs ranging from 25 in Buffalo to 21 in the higher terrain with wind chills in the single digits.

Tonight: Lake effect snow settling south into interior Chautauqua, northern Cattaraugus, and extreme southern Erie Counties...and becoming slightly less intense. 8-12" of accumulation expected where the band becomes focused...but an additional 4-8" is likely from the Buffalo south towns eastward along the Wyoming/Genesee County line before the band shifts south, bringing storm total accumulation up to 16-20" with local amounts to 2 feet. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts to near 50 mph, resulting in extensive blowing and drifting with near blizzard conditions at times. Lows ranging from 15 in Buffalo to 11 in the higher terrain with wind chills dropping to 5 to 10 below zero.

Tomorrow: Lake effect snow lifting north into extreme northern Chautauqua, southern Erie, and Wyoming Counties. An additional 4-8" is likely. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts to near 50 mph, resulting in extensive blowing and drifting with near blizzard conditions at times. Highs ranging from 21 in Buffalo to 17 in the higher terrain with wind chills ranging from 5 above to 5 below zero.

Tomorrow Night: Lake effect snow becoming focused across interior Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, northern Allegany, and extreme southern Erie and Wyoming Counties. An additional 4-8" is likely...bringing storm total accumulation up to 2 to 3 feet with locally higher amounts in extreme southern Erie and Wyoming Counties...and 15-25" with local amounts to 30" across interior Chautauqua and northern Cattaraugus Counties. Brisk and cold with areas of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures holding steady in the upper teens and lower 20s.

Saturday: Lingering lake snows possible in ski country during the morning, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and cold. Highs ranging from 27 in Buffalo to 23 in the higher terrain.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Not quite as cold. High near 34. Low near 20.

Monday: Cloudy with a good chance of mixed precipitation...possibly changing to all snow late in the day or at night. High near 35. Low near 30.

Tuesday: A chance of snow in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy. High near 35. Low near 30.

My Lake Effect Snow Forecast

Forecast for Wednesday 12/9

Today: Rain likely along the Chautauqua County lakeshore with snow and sleet changing to rain elsewhere. Total accumulation of 1-4" expected in most areas...but locally up to 7" across the higher terrain well inland from the lake. Little to no accumulation along the Chautauqua County lakeshore. Precipitation tapering off by late this morning with mostly cloudy skies and a few spotty rain showers for the rest of the day. Very windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo, especially this morning with gusts to near 60 mph at times. High near 40.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and turning much colder with heavy lake snows initially developing near and north of the Buffalo metro area after midnight...then becoming focused from the Chautauqua County shoreline northeastward into central Erie County toward morning. 3-6" of accumulation by morning with extensive blowing and drifting and near blizzard conditions at times. A period of damaging winds likely this evening with gusts approaching 60-70 mph...but remaining very windy for the entire overnight period. Lows ranging from 23 in Buffalo to 19 in the higher terrain with wind chills dropping into the single digits.

Tomorrow: Heavy lake snows generally focused from the Chautauqua County shoreline northeastward into central Erie County. An additional 6-12" expected with locally heavier amounts. Extensive blowing and drifting with near blizzard conditions at times. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts over 50 mph. Highs ranging from 25 in Buffalo to 21 in the higher terrain with wind chills in the single digits.

Tomorrow Night: Heavy lake snows initially focused from the Chautauqua County shoreline northeastward into central Erie County...then settling into ski country late. An additional 4-8" possible with locally heavier amounts...bringing the storm total accumulation up to 1 to 2 feet. Extensive blowing and drifting with near blizzard conditions at times. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts to near 50 mph. Lows ranging from 13 in Buffalo to 9 in the higher terrain with wind chills dropping to 5-15 below zero.

Friday: Heavy lake snows continuing across ski country with an additional significant accumulation possible. Extensive blowing and drifting with near blizzard conditions at times. Partly to mostly cloudy and cold across the rest of the region. Remaining very windy with occasional gusts to near 50 mph. Highs ranging from 23 in Buffalo to 19 in the higher terrain with wind chills in the single digits.

Saturday: Heavy lake snows possible in ski country during the morning, otherwise partly sunny and not quite as cold. High near 31. Low near 21.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. High near 34. Low near 25.

Monday: Partly cloudy and colder. High near 29. Low near 19.

Final Call: Midweek Storm

Forecast for Tuesday 12/8

Today: Early morning snow showers or flurries in the Southern Tier, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs ranging from 35 in Buffalo to 31 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Cloudy with snow arriving from southwest to northeast between 10PM and 1AM. Snow may mix with or change to rain in the lower elevations toward dawn. 1-3" of accumulation expected. Becoming quite windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 45 mph late. Lows ranging from 31 in Buffalo to 29 in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow: Rain likely in the lower elevations with snow changing to rain in the higher terrain. Up to an additional inch of accumulation possible...mainly above 1500 feet. Precipitation tapering off during the afternoon. Very windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times. High near 40.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy and turning much colder with heavy lake snows developing in the Buffalo metro area toward dawn. A period of damaging winds possible during the evening with gusts approaching 60 mph...but remaining very windy for the entire overnight period. Lows ranging from 25 in Buffalo to 21 in the higher terrain with wind chills dropping into the single digits.

Thursday: Very windy and cold with snow showers and locally heavy lake snows. Extensive blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures holding steady in the mid 20s with wind chills in the single digits.

Friday: Windy and cold with snow showers and locally heavy lake snows, especially during the morning. High near 22. Low near 15.

Saturday: Partly sunny, not quite as cold. A chance of snow late in the day or at night. High near 30. Low near 18.

Sunday: A chance of snow in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy and turning colder. Temperatures falling through the 20s.

First Call: Midweek Storm

Forecast for Monday 12/7

Today: Mostly cloudy and cold with an increasing chance of snow showers after 1PM. Highs ranging from 34 in Buffalo to 30 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Snow showers likely this evening with localized bands of heavier lake effect snow...beginning in the south towns around 8-9PM then settling into ski country by 11PM. Lake effect snow gradually weakening after 11PM. Accumulation generally an inch or two in most spots...but locally up to 4" where lake snows persist. Lows ranging from 32 near the lakeshore to 28 in Buffalo...but dropping to near 20 in rural valleys south of the lake effect snow.

Tomorrow: Early morning snow showers or flurries in the Southern Tier...then becoming partly sunny. Highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow Night: Becoming cloudy with snow arriving from southwest to northeast between 1AM and 4AM. Snow may mix with or change to rain in the lower elevations toward dawn. Becoming quite windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 45 mph late. Low near 32.

Wednesday: Rain likely in the lower elevations with snow changing to rain in the higher terrain. Precipitation tapering off during the afternoon. Very windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 45.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy and turning much colder with significant lake snows developing in the Buffalo metro area. A period of damaging winds possible during the evening...but remaining very windy for the entire overnight period. Low near 25.

Thursday: Very windy and cold with snow showers and potentially significant lake snows. Temperatures steady or falling through the 20s.

Friday: Windy and cold with snow showers and potentially significant lake snows, especially during the morning. High near 25. Low near 19.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Not quite as cold. High near 33. Low near 23.

First Guess: Midweek Storm

Forecast for Sunday 12/6

Today: Weak bands of lake effect snow focused across Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, southern Erie, and southern Wyoming Counties through midday...then lifting north this afternoon. Snow showers may reach the Buffalo metro area between 2-4PM. Local accumulation of an inch or so possible...especially in the Southern Tier this morning. Brisk and cold with highs ranging from 34 in Buffalo to 30 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Weak bands of lake effect snow becoming focused across northern Erie and Genesee Counties. Local accumulation of an inch or two possible. Becoming mostly clear south of the lake effect snow. Lows ranging from 32 near the lakeshore to 29 in Buffalo...but dropping to near 20 in Southern Tier Valleys.

Tomorrow: Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow showers and areas of heavier lake effect snow developing after 4PM, then continuing through the night. High near 36.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and perhaps some lake effect snow in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High near 37. Low near 31.

Wednesday: A period of snow or mixed precipitation in the morning, changing to rain before ending in the afternoon. Strong winds developing in the higher terrain south of Buffalo during the day with high winds developing across all of Western New York at night....accompanied by potentially significant lake snows. High near 40. Low near 33.

Thursday: Very windy and cold with snow showers and potentially significant lake snows. Temperatures holding steady or falling through the 20s.

Friday: Windy and cold with snow showers and potentially significant lake snows, mainly during the morning. High near 25. Low near 19.

Forecast for Saturday 12/5

Today: Mostly cloudy skies. Highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy on the Niagara Frontier. Mostly cloudy with weak bands of lake effect snow developing near the state line. Local accumulation of an inch or two possible...especially along the Chautauqua Ridge. Lows ranging from 32 near the lakeshore to 28 in Buffalo...but dropping to near 20 in rural valleys.

Tomorrow: Weak bands of lake effect snow continuing near the state line through mid-morning, then lifting north. Snow showers may reach the Buffalo metro area by mid-afternoon. Local accumulation of an inch or so possible...especially in the Southern Tier during the morning. Brisk and cold with highs ranging from 35 in Buffalo to 31 in the higher terrain.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy with snow showers or a steady light snow developing around midday. A few heavier snow squalls possible late in the day. Areas of lake effect snow developing south of Buffalo at night. High near 39. Low near 29.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and perhaps some lake effect snow in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. High near 37. Low near 32.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a good chance of snow or a wintry mix...possibly changing to rain before ending late. Precipitation may be heavy at times. Becoming very windy and much colder at night with potentially significant lake snows developing. High near 35. Low near 30.

Thursday: Very windy and cold with snow showers and potentially significant lake snows. Temperatures holding steady in the 20s.

Forecast for Friday 12/4

Today: Heavy lake effect snow focused along and north of a line from Buffalo to Cheektowaga to Alden. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2" per hour with occasional thunder and lightning. 3-6" of accumulation expected with locally heavier amounts...but little to no accumulation near the immediate lakeshore. South of the lake effect snow, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Windy and cold with highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain. Wind gusts may reach 35 mph at times.

Tonight: Lake effect snow remaining stationary along and north of a line from Buffalo to Cheektowaga to Alden, but slowly weakening throughout the night. An additional 2-4" of accumulation is possible with locally heavier amounts...bringing the storm total up to 5-10" or more. Partly cloudy and cold south of the lake effect snow. Lows ranging from 32 near the lakeshore to 29 in Buffalo...but dropping to near 20 in Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cold. Highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold. High near 37. Low near 28.

Monday: Generally overcast with a steady light snow arriving late in the day or at night. High near 39. Low near 29.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and perhaps some areas of heavier lake effect snow. High near 37. Low near 30.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a good chance of snow or a wintry mix. Precipitation may be heavy. High near 35. Low near 30.

Final Call: Late Week Lake Snow

Forecast for Thursday 12/3

Today: Mostly cloudy and becoming very windy with occasional showers, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Early high near 50 with temperatures dropping into the low 40s by the end of the day. Wind gusts may reach 45 mph at times.

Tonight: Becoming partly cloudy from Buffalo northward. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers in the higher terrain south of Buffalo, gradually mixing with then changing to snow. Bands of heavier lake effect snow developing near the state line around 1AM and gradually lifting north into ski country or the distant south towns during the predawn hours. 2-4" of accumulation is possible...mainly away from the lakeshore and above 1000 feet in elevation. Lows ranging from 34 in Buffalo to 31 in the higher terrain...but some upper 20s are possible where skies partially clear north of Buffalo.

Tomorrow: Bands of lake effect snow becoming focused from the Chautauqua and Erie County shorelines northeastward through the Buffalo metro area. Partly to mostly cloudy elsewhere. An additional 1-2" possible in ski country and the distant south towns during the morning...with 2-5" possible across inland sections of central and northern Erie County. Little to no accumulation along the immediate lakeshore. Becoming rather windy with highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 33 in the higher terrain. Wind gusts may reach 35 mph at times.

Tomorrow Night: Bands of lake effect snow remaining stationary from the Chautauqua and Erie County shorelines northeastward through the Buffalo metro area for most of the night. An additional accumulation is likely. Becoming partly cloudy and cold outside of the lake bands. Lows ranging from 32 near the lakeshore to 29 in Buffalo...but dropping to near 20 in rural areas away from the lake bands.

Saturday: Bands of lake effect snow gradually weakening in the vicinity of the Chautauqua and Erie County shorelines throughout the day. Mostly cloudy and cold elsewhere. High near 35 in Buffalo...32 in the higher terrain.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High near 38. Low near 25.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, mainly during the afternoon. A steadier snow arriving late in the day or at night. High near 36. Low near 26.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a good chance of snow. High near 33. Low near 27.

First Call: Late Week Lake Snow

Forecast for Wednesday 12/2

Today: Mostly sunny through midday with increasing and thickening clouds this afternoon. Much milder with a high near 51.

Tonight: Rain quickly overspreading the area from 5PM to 7PM and continuing through the rest of the night. Rain may be heavy at times. Becoming rather windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts to near 35 mph. Early low near 43 with temperatures rising into the upper 40s after midnight.

Tomorrow: Rain ending around 7AM, then remaining mostly cloudy and becoming very windy with falling temperatures. Early high near 47 with temperatures dropping into the 30s by late in the day. Wind gusts may reach 45 mph at times.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold. Bands of lake effect snow developing after midnight...initially in the Southern Tier then lifting north into the Buffalo metro. A light accumulation is possible...mainly away from the lakeshore. Lows ranging from 32 in Buffalo to 29 in the higher terrain...except holding in the mid 30s near the lake.

Friday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with a chance of snow showers and areas of lake effect snow...mainly north of Route 20A. A significant accumulation is possible. Highs ranging from 37 in Buffalo to 32 in the higher terrain.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers. Areas of lake effect snow redeveloping at night...mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 34. Low near 29.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and areas of lake effect snow...mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 35. Low near 28.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and areas of lake effect snow...mainly during the morning across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 36. Low near 27.

First Guess: Late Week Lake Snow

Forecast for Tuesday 12/1

Today: Lake effect snow continuing in the Buffalo metro through 7AM before rapidly shifting south and weakening. Total accumulation of 3-6" expected from Cheektowaga, West Seneca, and Orchard Park east to the Genesee/Wyoming County line...with lesser amounts closer to the lakeshore. Remaining mostly cloudy and rather windy for the rest of the day with a high near 42.

Tonight: Becoming mostly clear and seasonably chilly with rapidly diminishing winds. Low near 32 in Buffalo...but dipping well into the 20s in Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny through midday with increasing and thickening clouds during the afternoon. Much milder with a high near 51.

Tomorrow Night: Rain quickly overspreading the area from 5PM to 7PM and continuing through the rest of the night. Rain may be heavy at times. Becoming very windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts to near 45 mph. Early low near 43 with temperatures rising to near 50 after midnight.

Thursday: Rain ending around 7AM, then remaining mostly cloudy and very windy with falling temperatures. Bands of lake effect snow developing at night...initially in the Southern Tier then lifting north into the Buffalo metro. Early high near 50 with temperatures dropping into the 30s by late in the day. Wind gusts may reach 50 mph at times.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and localized lake snows. High near 35. Low near 31.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and localized lake snows. High near 33. Low near 28.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and localized lake snows. High near 34. Low near 28.

Final Call: Lake Effect Snow

Forecast for Monday 11/30

Today: Rain tapering to drizzle/mist then ending completely by midday. Remaining overcast brisk and cold with temperatures holding steady near 40 in Buffalo and in the mid 30s across the higher terrain.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and cold but primarily dry from Buffalo northward. Bands of lake effect snow developing south of Buffalo...possibly mixed with rain along the immediate lakeshore. Around an inch of accumulation across the higher terrain with locally 2-3" along the Chautauqua Ridge. Little to no accumulation along the lakeshore. Lows ranging from 34 in Buffalo to 31 in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with lake effect rain/snow lifting north into Buffalo during the morning. Little to no accumulation expected in the city and near the lakeshore but up to an inch of additional accumulation in the higher terrain to the south. High near 40 in Buffalo...mid 30s in the higher terrain.

Wednesday: Early morning sunshine yielding to mostly cloudy skies by midday. A soaking rain developing during the evening and continuing through the night. Becoming windy and much milder. High near 50. Low near 32.

Thursday: Cloudy and turning colder with rain changing to snow. A period of mixed precip/ice possible during the changeover, especially in the higher terrain. Strong winds and localized lake snows developing at night. High near 35. Low near 30.

Friday: Mostly cloudy windy and cold with a chance of snow showers and localized lake snows. High near 33. Low near 29.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers and localized lake snows in the morning, otherwise mostly cloudy and cold. High near 33. Low near 28.

First Call: Lake Effect Snow

Forecast for Sunday 11/29

Today: Mostly sunny this morning with increasing and thickening clouds this afternoon. Becoming breezy and much milder with a high near 52.

Tonight: Breezy with rain developing around 8-9PM and continuing for much of the night. Temperatures holding steady around 50 well into the evening hours, then dropping sharply to near 39 in Buffalo and 35 in the higher terrain by morning.

Tomorrow: Rain tapering to drizzle/mist after 7AM then ending completely by midday. Remaining overcast brisk and cold with temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s to near 40.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy and cold but primarily dry from Buffalo northward. Bands of lake effect snow developing south of Buffalo...possibly mixed with rain near the immediate lakeshore. A significant accumulation possible in the higher terrain. Lows ranging from 34 in Buffalo to 31 in the higher terrain.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with lake effect rain/snow lifting north into Buffalo during the morning. Little to no accumulation expected in the city and near the lakeshore, but a light slushy coating is possible in the higher terrain to the south. High near 40 in Buffalo...mid 30s in the higher terrain.

Wednesday: Early morning sunshine yielding to mostly cloudy skies by midday. A few spotty showers possible during the afternoon. High near 48. Low near 32.

Thursday: Cloudy and colder with snow, or rain changing to snow. Localized lake snows developing at night. High near 35. Low near 30.

Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and locally heavier lake snows. High near 33. Low near 29.

First Guess: Lake Effect Snow

Forecast for Saturday 11/28

Today: Mostly cloudy brisk and chilly with a chance of morning snow showers in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Becoming partly to mostly sunny late in the day. High near 42.

Tonight: Mostly clear and cold. Low near 32 in Buffalo, but dipping well into the 20s in Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow: Early morning sunshine yielding to mostly cloudy skies by midday. Becoming breezy with a chance of rain showers late in the day or at night. Not as chilly with a high near 47.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and colder with a chance of rain and snow showers. Precipitation will be mostly snow across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Localized bands of heavier lake effect snow developing at night. High near 40 in Buffalo...mid 30s in the higher terrain.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and areas of lake effect snow well south of Buffalo, especially during the morning. High near 37. Low near 33.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Not as cold. High near 43. Low near 28.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain or snow likely. Precipitation may be heavy. Temperatures steady in the 30s to near 40.

Forecast for Friday 11/27

Today (Black Friday): Mostly cloudy and colder with a mix of rain and snow showers. Precipitation will be mostly snow in the higher terrain south of Buffalo where around an inch of accumulation is possible. Becoming windy with a high near 39 in Buffalo...mid 30s in the higher terrain.

Tonight: Rain and snow showers likely through 7PM, then becoming partly cloudy on the Niagara Frontier. Remaining mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Up to an additional inch of accumulation possible...mainly along the Chautauqua Ridge. Windy and cold with a low near 34 in Buffalo...lower 30s in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy brisk and chilly with a chance of morning snow showers in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Becoming partly to mostly sunny late in the day. High near 42.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon. A period of steadier rain possible during the late afternoon or evening. High near 45. Low near 32.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and colder with a chance of rain and snow showers. Possible lake snows well south of Buffalo at night. High near 40. Low near 36.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers and areas of lake effect snow well south of Buffalo, especially during the morning. High near 34. Low near 30.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Not as cold. High near 43. Low near 28.

Final Call: Black Friday Storm

Forecast for Thursday 11/26

Today (Thanksgiving): Mostly cloudy and somewhat breezy with a chance of showers, mainly this afternoon. High near 49.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers becoming increasingly likely, especially after midnight. Showers will mix with then change to snow late, mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo where a light slushy coating is possible by morning. Low near 34.

Black Friday: Mostly cloudy and colder with a mix of rain and snow showers. Precipitation will be mostly snow in the higher terrain south of Buffalo where around an inch of accumulation is possible. Becoming windy with a high near 40 in Buffalo...mid 30s in the higher terrain.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy windy and cold with a chance of morning snow showers, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Breaks of sun possible later in the day. High near 39. Low near 34.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, not quite as cold. A chance of rain showers late in the day or at night. High near 45. Low near 32.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, possibly mixing with or changing to snow later in the day. Early high near 40 with temperatures dropping through the 30s during the afternoon.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers. High near 37. Low near 33.

First Call: Black Friday Storm

Forecast for Wednesday 11/25

Today: Generally overcast with patchy fog/mist in the higher terrain south of Buffalo, mainly this morning. A better chance of showers arriving in the Western Southern Tier by 2PM and across the Niagara Frontier by 4PM. Breezy with a high near 51.

Tonight: Showers ending early this evening, then remaining overcast but dry for the rest of the night. Low near 41.

Thanksgiving: Overcast and somewhat breezy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High near 44.

Black Friday: Mostly cloudy and colder with a mix of rain and snow showers. Precipitation will be mostly snow in the higher terrain south of Buffalo where a light accumulation is possible. Becoming windy. High near 40. Low near 34.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 36. Low near 32.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds through midday. Becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. A chance of rain showers late in the day or at night. High near 40. Low near 34.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. High near 44. Low near 38.

First Guess: Black Friday Storm

Forecast for Tuesday 11/24

Today: Mostly cloudy with a few spotty showers possible this morning. Becoming partly sunny and milder this afternoon. High near 55.

Tonight: Partly cloudy along and west of the Thruway. Becoming mostly cloudy and rather breezy with patchy fog/mist in the higher terrain south and east. A mild night by late November standards with a low near 46.

Tomorrow: A partly sunny start, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Breezy and mild with a high near 56.

Thanksgiving: Overcast and breezy with a chance of showers, especially during the afternoon. Temperatures steady in the mid 40s.

Black Friday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a mix of rain and snow showers. Precipitation will be mostly snow in the higher terrain south of Buffalo where a light accumulation is possible. Temperatures steady or dropping through the 30s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures steady in the lower 30s.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Not quite as cold. High near 40. Low near 32.

Special Update: Black Friday Storm Potential

I've been monitoring this for the last several days, and it continues to look like a significant storm system will be impacting Upstate NY beginning on Friday and lasting into Saturday. This storm will be coincident with the first real shot of cold air this season, and the potential does exist for a significant plowable snow in parts of the state.

At this point it is too early to pin down exactly where the heaviest snow will occur, but most computer model guidance has been focusing on the region from the Finger Lakes up through the North Country...in which case Western New York would catch the western fringe of the snowfall with generally lighter amounts. There is one model, however, that has consistently been placing the heaviest snow right in our backyard...so that possibility cannot be discounted altogether. Wherever this band of heavy snow sets up, the potential will exist for an accumulation of 6" or more. Most of the snow would fall between late Friday and early Saturday, with conditions gradually improving during the day on Saturday.

There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this possible storm, but since this weekend is such a busy travel period I encourage you to check back here for updates throughout the week.

Forecast for Monday 11/23

Today: Mostly sunny early this morning with a mix of sun and clouds developing by midday. Clouds will be most prevalent across the higher terrain inland from the lake. High near 53.

Tonight: Becoming overcast with a few spotty showers possible after midnight. The best chance of rain will be well south and east of Buffalo. Not as chilly with a low near 43.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with a few spotty showers possible in the morning. Becoming partly sunny and milder in the afternoon. High near 55.

Wednesday: A partly sunny start, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Still mild. High near 56. Low near 46.

Thanksgiving: Overcast and cooler with occasional rain showers and localized lake effect rain...mainly from Buffalo northward through midday. Showers becoming more widespread during the afternoon. Temperatures steady in the mid 40s.

Black Friday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a mix of rain and snow showers, eventually changing to all snow. The changeover will occur first across the higher terrain south of Buffalo, and last along the immediate lakeshore. Temperatures steady or dropping through the 30s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures steady in the lower 30s.

Forecast for Sunday 11/22

Today: An overcast start with patchy fog/mist in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Becoming mostly sunny in the Southern Tier between 10AM and 1PM...and across the Niagara Frontier between 1PM and 4PM. High near 49.

Tonight: Mostly clear through 4AM with low clouds redeveloping late. A chillier night with a low near 32 in Buffalo...but temperatures will dip well into the 20s in Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow: Generally overcast but primarily dry during the daytime hours. Spotty showers will spread from south to north well after dark. High near 48.

Tuesday: Generally overcast with a few spotty showers through midday. Becoming partly sunny and milder during the afternoon. High near 55. Low near 42.

Wednesday: A partly sunny start, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Still mild. High near 56. Low near 46.

Thanksgiving: Overcast and cooler with rain showers and localized lake effect rain...even in the Buffalo metro through midday. Activity becoming restricted to the higher terrain south of Buffalo during the afternoon with skies becoming partly sunny on the Niagara Frontier. Temperatures steady or dropping through the 40s.

Black Friday: Mostly cloudy brisk and cold with a chance of snow showers, mainly across the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s.

Forecast for Saturday 11/21

Today: Generally overcast through midday. Becoming partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. High near 50.

Tonight: Mostly clear this evening. Low clouds redeveloping after midnight. Low near 40.

Tomorrow: Generally overcast through midday. Becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Clouds will linger longest across the Niagara Frontier where it may remain overcast for much of the day. High near 49.

Monday: Generally overcast with showers arriving late in the day or at night. High near 48. Low near 36.

Tuesday: A chance of showers early in the morning, then becoming partly sunny and somewhat milder. High near 54. Low near 43.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny and mild. High near 55. Low near 46.

Thanksgiving: Mostly cloudy and cooler with a chance of showers. Temperatures steady or dropping through the 40s.

Forecast for Friday 11/20

Today: Generally overcast, brisk and chilly with lake effect rain winding down during the morning. Patches of drizzle or mist still possible during the afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 47.

Tonight: Mainly overcast but primarily dry near and west of the Thruway. Patches of drizzle/mist and areas of dense fog across the higher terrain south and east. Low near 42.

Tomorrow: Early morning drizzle/mist and areas of dense fog across the higher terrain south of Buffalo, otherwise mostly cloudy and chilly. High near 47.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High near 50. Low near 39.

Monday: Rain likely. Chilly and damp. High near 48. Low near 40.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Chilly and damp. High near 49. Low near 45.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, especially in the afternoon. High near 52. Low near 48.

Forecast for Thursday 11/19

Today: Periods of rain with occasional downpours. Heaviest rain affecting Chautauqua County from 7AM until 1PM, and Erie County from 10AM until 4PM. Becoming rather windy in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Still mild with a high near 59.

Tonight: Steady rain ending between 10PM and 1AM with several hours of dry weather thereafter. Lake effect rain will redevelop after 4AM. Turning cooler with a low near 44.

Tomorrow: Generally overcast, brisk and chilly with lake effect rain winding down during the morning. Patches of drizzle and mist still possible during the afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 47.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and chilly. High near 48. Low near 44.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High near 50. Low near 39.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High near 52. Low near 37.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely, especially in the afternoon. High near 47. Low near 42.

Forecast for Wednesday 11/18

Today: A few wisps of high thin cirrus clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. Becoming a bit milder with a high near 55.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies through midnight with clouds quickly spreading from southwest to northeast during the early morning hours. Breezy and much milder with a low near 48 in most spots...but sheltered valleys in the Southern Tier may still dip well into the 30s.

Tomorrow: Clouds and limited sun with an increasing chance of showers, especially later in the day. Some showers may become locally heavy. Breezy and mild with a high near 59.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and much cooler. A chance of light drizzle or mist, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 45. Low near 40.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and chilly. A chance of light drizzle or mist through midday, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 46. Low near 39.

Sunday: Stubborn cloud cover lingering in the morning hours. Becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High near 50. Low near 39.

Monday: Limited sun possible early, then becoming cloudy with an increasing chance of rain. High near 46. Low near 35.

Forecast for Tuesday 11/17

Today: Brilliant sunshine. Seasonably chilly with a high near 49.

Tonight: Clear and frosty cold. Patchy valley fog in the Southern Tier. Low near 31 in Buffalo, but dipping well into the 20s in Southern Tier valleys.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and becoming a bit milder. High near 55.

Thursday: Clouds and limited sun with an increasing chance of showers, especially late in the day. Breezy and mild. High near 59. Low near 48.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and much cooler. A chance of light drizzle or mist, mainly in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. High near 45. Low near 40.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. High near 46. Low near 36.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and windy with a good chance of rain. High near 50. Low near 39.

Forecasts to Resume Tomorrow

This was my last weekend in Binghamton, so I was unable to issue forecasts for Western NY. My services will promptly resume for Tuesday, November 17th!

Forecast for Saturday 11/14

Today: A mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will be more prevalent across the higher terrain inland from the lake. Quite mild with a high near 60.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog or mist developing across the higher terrain inland from the lake. Low near 49.

Tomorrow: A mix of sun and clouds through early afternoon, then becoming mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing sprinkle. High near 59.

Monday: Clouds and limited sun through early afternoon. Becoming mostly sunny later in the day. Breezy and noticeably cooler. High near 51. Low near 39.

Tuesday: Brilliant sunshine. High near 51. Low near 32.

Wednesday: Brilliant sunshine. High near 56. Low near 32.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 57. Low near 35.

Forecast for Friday 11/13

Today: An occasional wispy cirrus cloud, otherwise mostly sunny and mild. High near 61.

Tonight: Mostly clear from the lakeshore into Buffalo. Becoming mostly cloudy across the higher terrain inland from the lake. Milder than recent nights with a low near 45.

Tomorrow: A mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will be more prevalent across the higher terrain inland from the lake. Quite mild with a high near 63.

Sunday: Mostly sunny through early afternoon, then becoming mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing sprinkle. Turning breezy and cooler late in the day. High near 59. Low near 49.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. A chillier start, but warming up nicely by afternoon. High near 56. Low near 35.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance of showers late in the day or at night. High near 56. Low near 37.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. High near 51. Low near 42.

Forecast for Thursday 11/12

Today: Brilliant sunshine. A nice November day. High near 55.

Tonight: Clear and seasonably chilly. Low near 35.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and a bit milder. High near 61.

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will be a bit more prevalent over the higher terrain inland from the lake. Quite mild. High near 63. Low near 45.

Sunday: More clouds than sun, slight chance of a passing sprinkle. A bit cooler. High near 57. Low near 49.

Monday: Mostly sunny. A chillier start, but warming up nicely by afternoon. High near 59. Low near 35.

Tuesday: Becoming cloudy with an increasing chance of showers. High near 59. Low near 41.

Can Anyone Identify These Flowers?

These just bloomed today in my front yard. They are right next to some large rhododendrons, but I'm not sure what the tiny white flowers are called. Thanks for any help you can offer!

Warmest Weather of the Spring Ahead?

I apologize for not posting in a while, but it's been relatively quiet on the weather side recently! But while there may not be any threat of severe weather in the foreseeable future, I'm sure many of you will find the prospect of 70-degree warmth almost as thrilling! Looks like a fabulous stretch is shaping up beginning today and lasting potentially through Saturday.

High pressure is slowly building into the region this morning. This high and its associated dry air are finally squelching the clouds that have plagued our region over the last few days, and by late this afternoon I'm expecting brilliant sunshine from horizon to horizon! Temperatures will respond to the sunshine by climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s...except north of the Thruway where a developing northeast breeze will transport chilly air southward from Lake Ontario.

The center of high pressure will "crest" over the region tonight. With clear skies, light winds, and extremely dry air in place....temperatures will drop precipitously around or shortly after sunset, and by early tomorrow morning most areas away from the lakes will be down into the 20s with a heavy frost. Some of the normally colder rural valley locations in the Southern Tier may dip as low as 21 or 22 degrees. So if you have any inclination to get out and do some planting this afternoon....DON'T!

High pressure will remain in control during the day on Thursday. With near 100% sunshine, temperatures will warm up rapidly by midday...and we should be able to gain a couple degrees over today's temperatures. A light northerly wind will produce a chilly lake breeze downwind of Lake Ontario, but it won't penetrate quite as far inland as it will today.

Another clear and frosty night is expected tomorrow night, then the warmest day of the spring is likely shaping up for Friday. Right now I'm expecting temperatures to reach the upper 60s in the Southern Tier valleys with low to mid 60s elsewhere...but as winds shift and increase from the west southwest a lake breeze will cool areas east of Lake Erie into the 50s. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if downtown Buffalo cools into the 40s Friday afternoon while it remains in the 60s in the nearby south towns!

The forecast becomes a bit more complex this weekend as the models are attempting to bring some cooler air southward out of Canada. A part of me believes the models are being too aggressive with the cool air and temperatures on Saturday will be equal to or above those of Friday, but there is some uncertainty here. Sunday will be a noticeably cooler day with temperatures back in the 50s and a threat of showers.

test

I was just testing something out, but these are pretty cool pics so I'll leave them up! They were taken in Buffalo, NY following the Friday the 13th "October Surprise" snowstorm in 2006. Initial forecasts called for a mix of rain and snow with little to no accumulation....but the final measurement was 22.6 inches!! You can see the catastrophic impact to trees in the area. Glad I wasn't a forecaster in Buffalo for this one....

Obnoxiously Cold, Possible Snow??

It's mild and moist and the peepers are peeping, but Mother Nature is about to pull the rug out from underneath us here in the Southern Tier! A sharp cold front is charging eastward this evening, and much colder air is already filtering into Western New York at this time. The front should pass through Binghamton between 9:00 and 9:30 this evening with rapidly falling temperatures and a brisk westerly wind in its wake.

The piece of cold air which is swiftly approaching is being pinwheeled around a large upper low currently spinning in place to our north. In addition to the cold air there is a healthy amount of low level moisture wrapping around the upper low...and as that cold moist air is forced up into the higher elevations south of the Thruway, it will keep our chances for precipitation going right through tomorrow morning. The precipitation should remain all rain through about 5AM, but after 5AM that rain will mix with then change to snow across the area...beginning on the highest hilltops and gradually descending to the valley floors around daybreak. A period of accumulating snow is likely at elevations above 1500 feet...and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots up in Tompkins and Cortland Counties receive a slushy 3-4" of accumulation by around 10:00 tomorrow morning. Below 1500 feet there will be little to no accumulation.

Another story tomorrow will be the wind. I expect to see a rapid increase in wind speed between roughly 8:00 and 9:00 tomorrow morning...and the wind will remain very strong and gusty into tomorrow evening. The strongest winds will likely occur between 11AM and 5PM when widespread gusts of 45-50 mph can be expected. The wind will combine with temperatures in the 30s and occasional wet snow showers to make for a real nasty day by April standards! I certainly don't plan on doing anything outdoors, and nor should you LOL.

We'll catch a break from the active weather on Sunday although there will be plenty of clouds and a continuation of chilly temperatures, but the next storm in the lineup will already be bearing down on us by Monday morning. This storm looks to begin as rain but there are some pretty strong signals that an anomalous late season snow event may be brewing for Monday night and Tuesday...this time possibly extending down into the valleys. More details on this over the weekend.

A Topsy Turvy Weather Pattern

Forecasting the weather over the next 5-7 days will not be a task for the faint of heart. A series of fast-moving storm systems will be sweeping across the Northeast in rapid succession, each with its own set of unique challenges. But the greatest challenge of all will be correctly timing each system as this will have a huge impact on sensible weather throughout the period.

System #1 will be taking a swing at Upstate NY beginning tomorrow and lasting into tomorrow night. At this point I expect showers to break out across Western NY between 5AM and 8AM...but the rain should hold off until between 11AM and 2PM here in Binghamton. Once the rain begins, it will last for approximately 8-10 hours before coming to an end. Temperatures will be held down in the upper 40s and lower 50s due to the combination of cloud cover and moisture.

A break in the action will quickly follow tomorrow night into Thursday...and it actually looks like Thursday will be a beautiful spring day across the area! The day may begin with a bit of low cloud cover and patchy fog here in the Southern Tier, but the clouds/fog will rapidly burn off by 9-10AM and plenty of sunshine will follow for the rest of the day. Temperatures will respond to the sunshine by rebounding into the 60s. The warmth/moisture should allow the recently-emerged vegetation to advance a bit...and you can bet those peepers will be peeping both Wednesday night and Thursday night!

System #2 looks to take aim on the region late Thursday night into Friday. This system looks a bit more potent than its predecessor...meaning the potential is there for somewhat heavier rainfall. Strong winds may also be an issue on the ridgetops south of the Thruway, and also along the Lake Erie shoreline...and a few spots could see gusts pushing 45 or even 50 mph.

Another brief but significant shot of cold air will follow in the wake of system #2...and the higher elevations south of the Thruway may once again pick up a light coating of snow Friday night into early Saturday morning. Another break and period of moderating temperatures can be expected during the back half of the weekend.

The Peepers Are Back!

A bit ahead of schedule? Perhaps. But make no mistake, the spring peepers were out in full force this past weekend...an uplifting reminder that Old Man Winter is slowly but surely loosening his icy grip. For those who either, a) don't know me, or b) haven't lived in a rural area at any point in their life...spring peepers are tiny tree frogs that make an unmistakeable "peeping" noise on balmy spring evenings, typically beginning around sunset and lasting into the wee hours of the morning. They are one of the most familiar frogs in eastern North America.

The spring peeper is a fascinating specimen. Approximately the size of a thumb nail, the peeper is often heard but rarely seen. They are typically found in fishless, temporary wetlands associated with forested habitats like marshy woods, non-wooded lowlands, or near ponds and swamps. Between the months of March and June, hundreds of tiny peeper eggs are laid in the water, with the strings or clumps of eggs attached to twigs and aquatic vegetation. After the breeding season they move into woodlands, old fields or shrubby areas. As the days cool, the peepers dig into the soft mud near ponds where they will ultimately go into a type of partly-frozen hibernation for the winter.

Never heard what a peeper sounds like: Click on the link below for an audio clip:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Springpeepers.ogg

Welcome to My Blog!

This blog is something I created about a year ago, but my goal from this point forward is to update it at least once every few days...especially during periods of active/severe weather. My posts will generally revolve around the weather in/near Binghamton...but if something particularly noteworthy is occurring elsewhere in the country, I may focus on that. Comments are always welcome!

Today could potentially be an "interesting" weather day here in the Southern Tier. We're beginning the day on a cloudy/gloomy note, but forecast models are indicating there may be a period of significant drying in the mid levels of the atmosphere by around 2PM...enough drying to yield a few breaks of sunshine, perhaps. Some of the warmest air we've seen so far this year is currently moving in several thousand feet above our heads...but an inversion is preventing that air from "mixing down" to the ground. If any breaks of sun are able to develop, the inversion will weaken and our temperature could suddenly spike from the 50s to near 70° this afternoon! I was forecasting 65° for today's high.

A strong cold front and upper level disturbance will swing across the area late this afternoon or early this evening. If the clouds don't break and temperatures remain in the 50s all day, this front will just be accompanied by a period of rain showers. If the sun comes out and temperatures rapidly warm up, however, the possibility is certainly there for a few scattered thunderstorms! Come on sun!! I may post a few updates throughout the day if conditions warrant.

Have a wonderful Sunday!