I apologize for not posting in a while, but it's been relatively quiet on the weather side recently! But while there may not be any threat of severe weather in the foreseeable future, I'm sure many of you will find the prospect of 70-degree warmth almost as thrilling! Looks like a fabulous stretch is shaping up beginning today and lasting potentially through Saturday.
High pressure is slowly building into the region this morning. This high and its associated dry air are finally squelching the clouds that have plagued our region over the last few days, and by late this afternoon I'm expecting brilliant sunshine from horizon to horizon! Temperatures will respond to the sunshine by climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s...except north of the Thruway where a developing northeast breeze will transport chilly air southward from Lake Ontario.
The center of high pressure will "crest" over the region tonight. With clear skies, light winds, and extremely dry air in place....temperatures will drop precipitously around or shortly after sunset, and by early tomorrow morning most areas away from the lakes will be down into the 20s with a heavy frost. Some of the normally colder rural valley locations in the Southern Tier may dip as low as 21 or 22 degrees. So if you have any inclination to get out and do some planting this afternoon....DON'T!
High pressure will remain in control during the day on Thursday. With near 100% sunshine, temperatures will warm up rapidly by midday...and we should be able to gain a couple degrees over today's temperatures. A light northerly wind will produce a chilly lake breeze downwind of Lake Ontario, but it won't penetrate quite as far inland as it will today.
Another clear and frosty night is expected tomorrow night, then the warmest day of the spring is likely shaping up for Friday. Right now I'm expecting temperatures to reach the upper 60s in the Southern Tier valleys with low to mid 60s elsewhere...but as winds shift and increase from the west southwest a lake breeze will cool areas east of Lake Erie into the 50s. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if downtown Buffalo cools into the 40s Friday afternoon while it remains in the 60s in the nearby south towns!
The forecast becomes a bit more complex this weekend as the models are attempting to bring some cooler air southward out of Canada. A part of me believes the models are being too aggressive with the cool air and temperatures on Saturday will be equal to or above those of Friday, but there is some uncertainty here. Sunday will be a noticeably cooler day with temperatures back in the 50s and a threat of showers.
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