Wednesday Evening Update

.New England...
Showers will overspread SNH/MA around midday tomorrow. These showers will eventually give way to a 4-5hr period of steady rainfall...most likely within the 2-8PM timeframe...but I still don't expect the rain to be particularly heavy. It will be a chilly rain with temperatures hovering in the 40s.

The steady rain will taper off to occasional showers for the majority of tomorrow night...but it now appears that a plume of much heavier rainfall will be directed into portions of New England from Friday morning into the early part of Friday afternoon. I'm not sure if this plume of heavy rain will extend much farther north/west than the I-95 corridor...but in southeast MA we could experience several hours of drenching downpours, which may result in some localized flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is a low risk that damaging SSE wind gusts may develop across southeast MA as well...especially if thunderstorms become embedded within the plume of heavy rainfall. Again, locations north/west of I-95 may not have to worry about any of this...but since we are still more than 24 hours away from this event, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.

Conditions will dramatically improve later Friday into Friday night...and the weekend looks to feature a mix of clouds and sun, chilly temperatures, and a brisk breeze out of the NW.

.Western New York...
Periods of mainly light rain will develop across western New York late tomorrow evening or during the wee hours of Friday morning, and continue through the day Friday. As the airmass begins to cool, the rain will gradually mix with then change to snow. The changeover will first occur on the highest hilltops of the southern tier where a few wet flakes could mix in as early as daybreak Friday...and last along the immediate lakeshore, as well as in the Buffalo metro area where the changeover may not occur until after sunset Friday evening. Regardless, even the lowest elevations will ultimately see a change to snow with a light slushy accumulation possible by early Saturday morning.

Right now I'm thinking accumulations will range from a slushy coating (mainly on grassy surfaces and cartops) along the immediate lakeshore and in the Buffalo metro area...to as much as 4" at elevations above 1800 feet south of Buffalo. The snow will gradually wind down during the day Saturday.