Updated Thoughts on Late Week Weather

.Brief period of strong easterly winds to affect SE New England late THU...
A weak low pressure system is expected to develop along a coastal front in the vicinity of the North Carolina Outer Banks Wednesday night...and as this low pressure system travels up the coast, it will combine with a strengthening high pressure system east of the Canadian Maritimes to produce a brief period of 20-30kt easterly winds across coastal sections of southeast New England. This will primarily occur from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, and it will mainly be an issue for the Cape/Islands.

.SLIGHT chance of high winds/convection in SE New England on Friday...
A second and much stronger coastal storm is expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday evening. While forecast confidence remains lower-than-average at this point...more than half of the 15z SREF members are nudging a warm front into SE New England late Thursday night or early Friday morning, in direct response to the increasing southerly LLJ east of the developing coastal storm. Locations south/east of the warm front could experience a rapid rise in temperature from the 40s/50s into the 60s (with similar dewpoint temperatures), accompanied by the development of very strong winds out of the SSE. Convection may also develop within the warm sector, which may result in an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The passage of the warm front will depend entirely on the track of the surface low, and there is a chance that the warm front will NOT reach southeast New England in which case high winds/convection will not develop. It is only a slight possibility at the moment.

.Season's first snowfall likely in the hills of western NY Friday/Friday Night...
An unusually deep upper level trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. The combination of dPVA, very steep mlvl lapse rates, moist cyclonic flow, and moderate to extreme lake-induced instability will result in a pseudo-LES/upslope type situation with frequent snow showers/squalls across the majority of western NY during this time period. Surface temperatures may be slightly too warm for an accumulating snowfall at lower elevations, but locations above 1000' could experience a general 1-4" snowfall by early Saturday morning.