Saturday, November 27, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Wednesday Evening Update
.New England...
Showers will overspread SNH/MA around midday tomorrow. These showers will eventually give way to a 4-5hr period of steady rainfall...most likely within the 2-8PM timeframe...but I still don't expect the rain to be particularly heavy. It will be a chilly rain with temperatures hovering in the 40s.
The steady rain will taper off to occasional showers for the majority of tomorrow night...but it now appears that a plume of much heavier rainfall will be directed into portions of New England from Friday morning into the early part of Friday afternoon. I'm not sure if this plume of heavy rain will extend much farther north/west than the I-95 corridor...but in southeast MA we could experience several hours of drenching downpours, which may result in some localized flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is a low risk that damaging SSE wind gusts may develop across southeast MA as well...especially if thunderstorms become embedded within the plume of heavy rainfall. Again, locations north/west of I-95 may not have to worry about any of this...but since we are still more than 24 hours away from this event, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.
Conditions will dramatically improve later Friday into Friday night...and the weekend looks to feature a mix of clouds and sun, chilly temperatures, and a brisk breeze out of the NW.
.Western New York...
Periods of mainly light rain will develop across western New York late tomorrow evening or during the wee hours of Friday morning, and continue through the day Friday. As the airmass begins to cool, the rain will gradually mix with then change to snow. The changeover will first occur on the highest hilltops of the southern tier where a few wet flakes could mix in as early as daybreak Friday...and last along the immediate lakeshore, as well as in the Buffalo metro area where the changeover may not occur until after sunset Friday evening. Regardless, even the lowest elevations will ultimately see a change to snow with a light slushy accumulation possible by early Saturday morning.
Right now I'm thinking accumulations will range from a slushy coating (mainly on grassy surfaces and cartops) along the immediate lakeshore and in the Buffalo metro area...to as much as 4" at elevations above 1800 feet south of Buffalo. The snow will gradually wind down during the day Saturday.
Showers will overspread SNH/MA around midday tomorrow. These showers will eventually give way to a 4-5hr period of steady rainfall...most likely within the 2-8PM timeframe...but I still don't expect the rain to be particularly heavy. It will be a chilly rain with temperatures hovering in the 40s.
The steady rain will taper off to occasional showers for the majority of tomorrow night...but it now appears that a plume of much heavier rainfall will be directed into portions of New England from Friday morning into the early part of Friday afternoon. I'm not sure if this plume of heavy rain will extend much farther north/west than the I-95 corridor...but in southeast MA we could experience several hours of drenching downpours, which may result in some localized flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is a low risk that damaging SSE wind gusts may develop across southeast MA as well...especially if thunderstorms become embedded within the plume of heavy rainfall. Again, locations north/west of I-95 may not have to worry about any of this...but since we are still more than 24 hours away from this event, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.
Conditions will dramatically improve later Friday into Friday night...and the weekend looks to feature a mix of clouds and sun, chilly temperatures, and a brisk breeze out of the NW.
.Western New York...
Periods of mainly light rain will develop across western New York late tomorrow evening or during the wee hours of Friday morning, and continue through the day Friday. As the airmass begins to cool, the rain will gradually mix with then change to snow. The changeover will first occur on the highest hilltops of the southern tier where a few wet flakes could mix in as early as daybreak Friday...and last along the immediate lakeshore, as well as in the Buffalo metro area where the changeover may not occur until after sunset Friday evening. Regardless, even the lowest elevations will ultimately see a change to snow with a light slushy accumulation possible by early Saturday morning.
Right now I'm thinking accumulations will range from a slushy coating (mainly on grassy surfaces and cartops) along the immediate lakeshore and in the Buffalo metro area...to as much as 4" at elevations above 1800 feet south of Buffalo. The snow will gradually wind down during the day Saturday.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Updated Thoughts on Late Week Weather
.Brief period of strong easterly winds to affect SE New England late THU...
A weak low pressure system is expected to develop along a coastal front in the vicinity of the North Carolina Outer Banks Wednesday night...and as this low pressure system travels up the coast, it will combine with a strengthening high pressure system east of the Canadian Maritimes to produce a brief period of 20-30kt easterly winds across coastal sections of southeast New England. This will primarily occur from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, and it will mainly be an issue for the Cape/Islands.
.SLIGHT chance of high winds/convection in SE New England on Friday...
A second and much stronger coastal storm is expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday evening. While forecast confidence remains lower-than-average at this point...more than half of the 15z SREF members are nudging a warm front into SE New England late Thursday night or early Friday morning, in direct response to the increasing southerly LLJ east of the developing coastal storm. Locations south/east of the warm front could experience a rapid rise in temperature from the 40s/50s into the 60s (with similar dewpoint temperatures), accompanied by the development of very strong winds out of the SSE. Convection may also develop within the warm sector, which may result in an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The passage of the warm front will depend entirely on the track of the surface low, and there is a chance that the warm front will NOT reach southeast New England in which case high winds/convection will not develop. It is only a slight possibility at the moment.
.Season's first snowfall likely in the hills of western NY Friday/Friday Night...
An unusually deep upper level trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. The combination of dPVA, very steep mlvl lapse rates, moist cyclonic flow, and moderate to extreme lake-induced instability will result in a pseudo-LES/upslope type situation with frequent snow showers/squalls across the majority of western NY during this time period. Surface temperatures may be slightly too warm for an accumulating snowfall at lower elevations, but locations above 1000' could experience a general 1-4" snowfall by early Saturday morning.
A weak low pressure system is expected to develop along a coastal front in the vicinity of the North Carolina Outer Banks Wednesday night...and as this low pressure system travels up the coast, it will combine with a strengthening high pressure system east of the Canadian Maritimes to produce a brief period of 20-30kt easterly winds across coastal sections of southeast New England. This will primarily occur from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, and it will mainly be an issue for the Cape/Islands.
.SLIGHT chance of high winds/convection in SE New England on Friday...
A second and much stronger coastal storm is expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday evening. While forecast confidence remains lower-than-average at this point...more than half of the 15z SREF members are nudging a warm front into SE New England late Thursday night or early Friday morning, in direct response to the increasing southerly LLJ east of the developing coastal storm. Locations south/east of the warm front could experience a rapid rise in temperature from the 40s/50s into the 60s (with similar dewpoint temperatures), accompanied by the development of very strong winds out of the SSE. Convection may also develop within the warm sector, which may result in an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The passage of the warm front will depend entirely on the track of the surface low, and there is a chance that the warm front will NOT reach southeast New England in which case high winds/convection will not develop. It is only a slight possibility at the moment.
.Season's first snowfall likely in the hills of western NY Friday/Friday Night...
An unusually deep upper level trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. The combination of dPVA, very steep mlvl lapse rates, moist cyclonic flow, and moderate to extreme lake-induced instability will result in a pseudo-LES/upslope type situation with frequent snow showers/squalls across the majority of western NY during this time period. Surface temperatures may be slightly too warm for an accumulating snowfall at lower elevations, but locations above 1000' could experience a general 1-4" snowfall by early Saturday morning.
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