Epic Storm Winding Down. So What's Next??

The recent "snowbomb" that dumped 36"+ in a razor-thin stripe extending from South Buffalo eastward along the Cheektowaga/Depew border is beginning to unravel, but will still bring a few inches of additional snowfall to locations south of Buffalo as it sinks toward ski country overnight tonight. This event was arguably the third most disruptive lake effect storm in recent western New York history, ranking behind the infamous "October Surprise" of 2006 and the "Gridlock Storm" of November 2000...the latter having a much larger impact in the immediate vicinity of downtown Buffalo than this current event. So where do we go from here?

The next couple of days look relatively quiet in western New York. Sunshine will be hard to come by, as is typically the case at this time of year...but most locations will receive little snow of consequence. The exception may be across Chautauqua County tomorrow afternoon and evening where winds may line up just right to establish a brief connection with Lake Huron, resulting in a period of lake effect snow that may add up to a few inches along the Chautauqua Ridge. Not a huge deal, and continued light wind speeds will make blowing/drifting a non-issue...but there may be some slippery roads if you'll be traveling in that direction for whatever reason.

Things will begin to change as we head deeper into the weekend....and the period from Sunday through at least the middle of next week (potentially even beyond that) is looking like a very wintry period throughout western New York. I don't foresee any "epic" lake effect snowstorms that will dump feet at a time....but it will be snowing almost constantly, and I would anticipate at least a light accumulation in most spots each and every day. In the higher terrain south of Buffalo (from the Boston Hills down into the Southern Tier) the snowfall may be somewhat more significant with perhaps a few inches falling per day...and over the course of 5-6 days this may add up to fairly hefty amounts. Very cold temperatures will result in a more powdery snow, and blustery west to northwest winds will allow that snow to blow and drift...particularly in the open countryside where travel on north-south roads could become rather tricky. Be sure to check my facebook page for updates!

Blustery Post-LES Morning: 11/27/2010

Wednesday Evening Update

.New England...
Showers will overspread SNH/MA around midday tomorrow. These showers will eventually give way to a 4-5hr period of steady rainfall...most likely within the 2-8PM timeframe...but I still don't expect the rain to be particularly heavy. It will be a chilly rain with temperatures hovering in the 40s.

The steady rain will taper off to occasional showers for the majority of tomorrow night...but it now appears that a plume of much heavier rainfall will be directed into portions of New England from Friday morning into the early part of Friday afternoon. I'm not sure if this plume of heavy rain will extend much farther north/west than the I-95 corridor...but in southeast MA we could experience several hours of drenching downpours, which may result in some localized flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is a low risk that damaging SSE wind gusts may develop across southeast MA as well...especially if thunderstorms become embedded within the plume of heavy rainfall. Again, locations north/west of I-95 may not have to worry about any of this...but since we are still more than 24 hours away from this event, I'm not ruling anything out at this point.

Conditions will dramatically improve later Friday into Friday night...and the weekend looks to feature a mix of clouds and sun, chilly temperatures, and a brisk breeze out of the NW.

.Western New York...
Periods of mainly light rain will develop across western New York late tomorrow evening or during the wee hours of Friday morning, and continue through the day Friday. As the airmass begins to cool, the rain will gradually mix with then change to snow. The changeover will first occur on the highest hilltops of the southern tier where a few wet flakes could mix in as early as daybreak Friday...and last along the immediate lakeshore, as well as in the Buffalo metro area where the changeover may not occur until after sunset Friday evening. Regardless, even the lowest elevations will ultimately see a change to snow with a light slushy accumulation possible by early Saturday morning.

Right now I'm thinking accumulations will range from a slushy coating (mainly on grassy surfaces and cartops) along the immediate lakeshore and in the Buffalo metro area...to as much as 4" at elevations above 1800 feet south of Buffalo. The snow will gradually wind down during the day Saturday.

Updated Thoughts on Late Week Weather

.Brief period of strong easterly winds to affect SE New England late THU...
A weak low pressure system is expected to develop along a coastal front in the vicinity of the North Carolina Outer Banks Wednesday night...and as this low pressure system travels up the coast, it will combine with a strengthening high pressure system east of the Canadian Maritimes to produce a brief period of 20-30kt easterly winds across coastal sections of southeast New England. This will primarily occur from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, and it will mainly be an issue for the Cape/Islands.

.SLIGHT chance of high winds/convection in SE New England on Friday...
A second and much stronger coastal storm is expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday evening. While forecast confidence remains lower-than-average at this point...more than half of the 15z SREF members are nudging a warm front into SE New England late Thursday night or early Friday morning, in direct response to the increasing southerly LLJ east of the developing coastal storm. Locations south/east of the warm front could experience a rapid rise in temperature from the 40s/50s into the 60s (with similar dewpoint temperatures), accompanied by the development of very strong winds out of the SSE. Convection may also develop within the warm sector, which may result in an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The passage of the warm front will depend entirely on the track of the surface low, and there is a chance that the warm front will NOT reach southeast New England in which case high winds/convection will not develop. It is only a slight possibility at the moment.

.Season's first snowfall likely in the hills of western NY Friday/Friday Night...
An unusually deep upper level trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. The combination of dPVA, very steep mlvl lapse rates, moist cyclonic flow, and moderate to extreme lake-induced instability will result in a pseudo-LES/upslope type situation with frequent snow showers/squalls across the majority of western NY during this time period. Surface temperatures may be slightly too warm for an accumulating snowfall at lower elevations, but locations above 1000' could experience a general 1-4" snowfall by early Saturday morning.

My Wx Notes: Sunday 10/31

Tonight: Becoming mostly clear and cold! First hard freeze of the season with temps dropping to near 31F. OWD may dip into the 20s late if winds lighten up enough.

Tomorrow: A generally sunny start will yield to a mix of sun/clouds in the afternoon. Breezy and chilly with highs ranging from 46-50F.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear and cold. Low near 31F in Norwood Center...but as low as the mid 20s at OWD. Light winds will make the cold temps easier to take.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and chilly, but with lighter wind speeds. High 46-50F.

Tuesday Night: Clear, still quite cold. Low near 34F in Norwood Center...upper 20s at OWD.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, seasonably chilly. High 48-52F.

Preliminary Thoughts on the Late Week Storm

There are still many details that need to be ironed out, but the probability of an intense storm system impacting the NEUS in the THU/FRI timeframe appears to be increasing IMO. At the moment, I'm favoring a storm track to the west of New England...which would place us on the milder side of the storm's circulation with heavy rain/wind being the primary concern. Most of the models are depicting a scenario in which the surface low gets captured by the mid-latitude trough that ultimately cuts off in the GL/OV...forcing it to angle in toward the coastline on a SE-NW track. Climatologically, this fits the prototype for an SNE high wind event...and some of our most destructive wind storms have resulted from a rapidly intensifying surface low approaching SNE from the SE. I'm not saying that will necessarily be the case this time around, but it certainly bears watching. We will also have to be on guard for the potential development of a fine line of low-topped convection in the vicinity of the surface cold front, which may result in an enhanced high wind threat as it travels from W-E or SW-NE across the region during the day on Friday.

All of this could change if the storm track shifts dramatically east/west on future model runs...something that is certainly within the realm of possibility for a storm that is still 4-5 days out. But for now, I am leaning toward the scenario described above...and I do believe this has the potential to be a high impact event across southeast MA.

My Wx Notes: Saturday 10/30

Today: Generally sunny, a few wispy high clouds. Gusty SW wind likely to kick in by midday. High temps 56-60F.

Tonight: Mostly clear and breezy, much milder than last night. Temps holding near 50F for most of the night, but may quickly drop into the mid/upper 40s late depending on timing of FROPA.

Tomorrow: A sunny/milder start but stratocu likely to "bleed" southward from northern New England during the PM. Midday high as warm as 58-62F but temps likely to slip back through the 50s during the PM. Gusty NW wind developing by midday.

Tomorrow Night: Clearing skies, breezy and cold! Low near 31F.

Monday: Mix of sun/clouds (especially PM), breezy and chilly. High 46-50F.

Monday Night: Clear and cold, but much less wind. Low near 30F most spots, but wouldn't be shocked to see OWD dip as low as the mid 20s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy, 46-50F again.

May 9th SNOW

This snow shower occurred less than 24 hours after this:

4/9/10 Graupel