Saturday, April 25, 2009
Can Anyone Identify These Flowers?
These just bloomed today in my front yard. They are right next to some large rhododendrons, but I'm not sure what the tiny white flowers are called. Thanks for any help you can offer!
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Warmest Weather of the Spring Ahead?
I apologize for not posting in a while, but it's been relatively quiet on the weather side recently! But while there may not be any threat of severe weather in the foreseeable future, I'm sure many of you will find the prospect of 70-degree warmth almost as thrilling! Looks like a fabulous stretch is shaping up beginning today and lasting potentially through Saturday.
High pressure is slowly building into the region this morning. This high and its associated dry air are finally squelching the clouds that have plagued our region over the last few days, and by late this afternoon I'm expecting brilliant sunshine from horizon to horizon! Temperatures will respond to the sunshine by climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s...except north of the Thruway where a developing northeast breeze will transport chilly air southward from Lake Ontario.
The center of high pressure will "crest" over the region tonight. With clear skies, light winds, and extremely dry air in place....temperatures will drop precipitously around or shortly after sunset, and by early tomorrow morning most areas away from the lakes will be down into the 20s with a heavy frost. Some of the normally colder rural valley locations in the Southern Tier may dip as low as 21 or 22 degrees. So if you have any inclination to get out and do some planting this afternoon....DON'T!
High pressure will remain in control during the day on Thursday. With near 100% sunshine, temperatures will warm up rapidly by midday...and we should be able to gain a couple degrees over today's temperatures. A light northerly wind will produce a chilly lake breeze downwind of Lake Ontario, but it won't penetrate quite as far inland as it will today.
Another clear and frosty night is expected tomorrow night, then the warmest day of the spring is likely shaping up for Friday. Right now I'm expecting temperatures to reach the upper 60s in the Southern Tier valleys with low to mid 60s elsewhere...but as winds shift and increase from the west southwest a lake breeze will cool areas east of Lake Erie into the 50s. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if downtown Buffalo cools into the 40s Friday afternoon while it remains in the 60s in the nearby south towns!
The forecast becomes a bit more complex this weekend as the models are attempting to bring some cooler air southward out of Canada. A part of me believes the models are being too aggressive with the cool air and temperatures on Saturday will be equal to or above those of Friday, but there is some uncertainty here. Sunday will be a noticeably cooler day with temperatures back in the 50s and a threat of showers.
High pressure is slowly building into the region this morning. This high and its associated dry air are finally squelching the clouds that have plagued our region over the last few days, and by late this afternoon I'm expecting brilliant sunshine from horizon to horizon! Temperatures will respond to the sunshine by climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s...except north of the Thruway where a developing northeast breeze will transport chilly air southward from Lake Ontario.
The center of high pressure will "crest" over the region tonight. With clear skies, light winds, and extremely dry air in place....temperatures will drop precipitously around or shortly after sunset, and by early tomorrow morning most areas away from the lakes will be down into the 20s with a heavy frost. Some of the normally colder rural valley locations in the Southern Tier may dip as low as 21 or 22 degrees. So if you have any inclination to get out and do some planting this afternoon....DON'T!
High pressure will remain in control during the day on Thursday. With near 100% sunshine, temperatures will warm up rapidly by midday...and we should be able to gain a couple degrees over today's temperatures. A light northerly wind will produce a chilly lake breeze downwind of Lake Ontario, but it won't penetrate quite as far inland as it will today.
Another clear and frosty night is expected tomorrow night, then the warmest day of the spring is likely shaping up for Friday. Right now I'm expecting temperatures to reach the upper 60s in the Southern Tier valleys with low to mid 60s elsewhere...but as winds shift and increase from the west southwest a lake breeze will cool areas east of Lake Erie into the 50s. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if downtown Buffalo cools into the 40s Friday afternoon while it remains in the 60s in the nearby south towns!
The forecast becomes a bit more complex this weekend as the models are attempting to bring some cooler air southward out of Canada. A part of me believes the models are being too aggressive with the cool air and temperatures on Saturday will be equal to or above those of Friday, but there is some uncertainty here. Sunday will be a noticeably cooler day with temperatures back in the 50s and a threat of showers.
Monday, April 13, 2009
test
I was just testing something out, but these are pretty cool pics so I'll leave them up! They were taken in Buffalo, NY following the Friday the 13th "October Surprise" snowstorm in 2006. Initial forecasts called for a mix of rain and snow with little to no accumulation....but the final measurement was 22.6 inches!! You can see the catastrophic impact to trees in the area. Glad I wasn't a forecaster in Buffalo for this one....
Friday, April 3, 2009
Obnoxiously Cold, Possible Snow??
It's mild and moist and the peepers are peeping, but Mother Nature is about to pull the rug out from underneath us here in the Southern Tier! A sharp cold front is charging eastward this evening, and much colder air is already filtering into Western New York at this time. The front should pass through Binghamton between 9:00 and 9:30 this evening with rapidly falling temperatures and a brisk westerly wind in its wake.
The piece of cold air which is swiftly approaching is being pinwheeled around a large upper low currently spinning in place to our north. In addition to the cold air there is a healthy amount of low level moisture wrapping around the upper low...and as that cold moist air is forced up into the higher elevations south of the Thruway, it will keep our chances for precipitation going right through tomorrow morning. The precipitation should remain all rain through about 5AM, but after 5AM that rain will mix with then change to snow across the area...beginning on the highest hilltops and gradually descending to the valley floors around daybreak. A period of accumulating snow is likely at elevations above 1500 feet...and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots up in Tompkins and Cortland Counties receive a slushy 3-4" of accumulation by around 10:00 tomorrow morning. Below 1500 feet there will be little to no accumulation.
Another story tomorrow will be the wind. I expect to see a rapid increase in wind speed between roughly 8:00 and 9:00 tomorrow morning...and the wind will remain very strong and gusty into tomorrow evening. The strongest winds will likely occur between 11AM and 5PM when widespread gusts of 45-50 mph can be expected. The wind will combine with temperatures in the 30s and occasional wet snow showers to make for a real nasty day by April standards! I certainly don't plan on doing anything outdoors, and nor should you LOL.
We'll catch a break from the active weather on Sunday although there will be plenty of clouds and a continuation of chilly temperatures, but the next storm in the lineup will already be bearing down on us by Monday morning. This storm looks to begin as rain but there are some pretty strong signals that an anomalous late season snow event may be brewing for Monday night and Tuesday...this time possibly extending down into the valleys. More details on this over the weekend.
The piece of cold air which is swiftly approaching is being pinwheeled around a large upper low currently spinning in place to our north. In addition to the cold air there is a healthy amount of low level moisture wrapping around the upper low...and as that cold moist air is forced up into the higher elevations south of the Thruway, it will keep our chances for precipitation going right through tomorrow morning. The precipitation should remain all rain through about 5AM, but after 5AM that rain will mix with then change to snow across the area...beginning on the highest hilltops and gradually descending to the valley floors around daybreak. A period of accumulating snow is likely at elevations above 1500 feet...and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots up in Tompkins and Cortland Counties receive a slushy 3-4" of accumulation by around 10:00 tomorrow morning. Below 1500 feet there will be little to no accumulation.
Another story tomorrow will be the wind. I expect to see a rapid increase in wind speed between roughly 8:00 and 9:00 tomorrow morning...and the wind will remain very strong and gusty into tomorrow evening. The strongest winds will likely occur between 11AM and 5PM when widespread gusts of 45-50 mph can be expected. The wind will combine with temperatures in the 30s and occasional wet snow showers to make for a real nasty day by April standards! I certainly don't plan on doing anything outdoors, and nor should you LOL.
We'll catch a break from the active weather on Sunday although there will be plenty of clouds and a continuation of chilly temperatures, but the next storm in the lineup will already be bearing down on us by Monday morning. This storm looks to begin as rain but there are some pretty strong signals that an anomalous late season snow event may be brewing for Monday night and Tuesday...this time possibly extending down into the valleys. More details on this over the weekend.
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