Forecasting the weather over the next 5-7 days will not be a task for the faint of heart. A series of fast-moving storm systems will be sweeping across the Northeast in rapid succession, each with its own set of unique challenges. But the greatest challenge of all will be correctly timing each system as this will have a huge impact on sensible weather throughout the period.
System #1 will be taking a swing at Upstate NY beginning tomorrow and lasting into tomorrow night. At this point I expect showers to break out across Western NY between 5AM and 8AM...but the rain should hold off until between 11AM and 2PM here in Binghamton. Once the rain begins, it will last for approximately 8-10 hours before coming to an end. Temperatures will be held down in the upper 40s and lower 50s due to the combination of cloud cover and moisture.
A break in the action will quickly follow tomorrow night into Thursday...and it actually looks like Thursday will be a beautiful spring day across the area! The day may begin with a bit of low cloud cover and patchy fog here in the Southern Tier, but the clouds/fog will rapidly burn off by 9-10AM and plenty of sunshine will follow for the rest of the day. Temperatures will respond to the sunshine by rebounding into the 60s. The warmth/moisture should allow the recently-emerged vegetation to advance a bit...and you can bet those peepers will be peeping both Wednesday night and Thursday night!
System #2 looks to take aim on the region late Thursday night into Friday. This system looks a bit more potent than its predecessor...meaning the potential is there for somewhat heavier rainfall. Strong winds may also be an issue on the ridgetops south of the Thruway, and also along the Lake Erie shoreline...and a few spots could see gusts pushing 45 or even 50 mph.
Another brief but significant shot of cold air will follow in the wake of system #2...and the higher elevations south of the Thruway may once again pick up a light coating of snow Friday night into early Saturday morning. Another break and period of moderating temperatures can be expected during the back half of the weekend.
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Just a bit of an update on this Thursday morning. The low clouds and fog are rapidly burning off, and I fully expect the sun to break out in Binghamton between now and 11AM. Temperatures will easily make a run for the low 60s this afternoon...and it's possible we could even reach the mid 60s. The combination of yesterday's rain plus today's mild/moist conditions should help to advance some of the foliage...and we'll probably see a few daffodils in bloom by the end of the day!
Enjoy this weather, because another rainy day is on tap tomorrow followed by an extended period of cloudy, chilly, and unsettled weather Saturday through the middle of next week. I still think elevations above 1500' could receive a slushy coating of snow Saturday morning as well.
More details later!
As expected, strong winds are occurring in some locations early this morning. A wind gust to 50 mph was measured in Dunkirk at 6:43 AM. Winds will remain quite gusty through the day along the Lake Erie shoreline and on exposed ridgetops south of the Thruway...as well as in valleys that have a northwest-southeast orientation due to localized channeling.
Dramatic changes are in store tonight and tomorrow as a piece of very chilly air gets pinwheeled in our direction. As much as 3-4" of slushy wet snow may accumulate along the Chautauqua Ridge south of Buffalo...and elevations above 1500 feet could receive a minor slushy accumulation of snow as far south/east as the Catskill Mountains. Winds will be another big story tomorrow with gusts pushing 45-50 mph across much of Upstate NY. I'll have a more thorough update later!
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