Tonight: Becoming mostly clear and cold! First hard freeze of the season with temps dropping to near 31F. OWD may dip into the 20s late if winds lighten up enough.
Tomorrow: A generally sunny start will yield to a mix of sun/clouds in the afternoon. Breezy and chilly with highs ranging from 46-50F.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear and cold. Low near 31F in Norwood Center...but as low as the mid 20s at OWD. Light winds will make the cold temps easier to take.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and chilly, but with lighter wind speeds. High 46-50F.
Tuesday Night: Clear, still quite cold. Low near 34F in Norwood Center...upper 20s at OWD.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, seasonably chilly. High 48-52F.
Preliminary Thoughts on the Late Week Storm
There are still many details that need to be ironed out, but the probability of an intense storm system impacting the NEUS in the THU/FRI timeframe appears to be increasing IMO. At the moment, I'm favoring a storm track to the west of New England...which would place us on the milder side of the storm's circulation with heavy rain/wind being the primary concern. Most of the models are depicting a scenario in which the surface low gets captured by the mid-latitude trough that ultimately cuts off in the GL/OV...forcing it to angle in toward the coastline on a SE-NW track. Climatologically, this fits the prototype for an SNE high wind event...and some of our most destructive wind storms have resulted from a rapidly intensifying surface low approaching SNE from the SE. I'm not saying that will necessarily be the case this time around, but it certainly bears watching. We will also have to be on guard for the potential development of a fine line of low-topped convection in the vicinity of the surface cold front, which may result in an enhanced high wind threat as it travels from W-E or SW-NE across the region during the day on Friday.
All of this could change if the storm track shifts dramatically east/west on future model runs...something that is certainly within the realm of possibility for a storm that is still 4-5 days out. But for now, I am leaning toward the scenario described above...and I do believe this has the potential to be a high impact event across southeast MA.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Saturday, October 30, 2010
My Wx Notes: Saturday 10/30
Today: Generally sunny, a few wispy high clouds. Gusty SW wind likely to kick in by midday. High temps 56-60F.
Tonight: Mostly clear and breezy, much milder than last night. Temps holding near 50F for most of the night, but may quickly drop into the mid/upper 40s late depending on timing of FROPA.
Tomorrow: A sunny/milder start but stratocu likely to "bleed" southward from northern New England during the PM. Midday high as warm as 58-62F but temps likely to slip back through the 50s during the PM. Gusty NW wind developing by midday.
Tomorrow Night: Clearing skies, breezy and cold! Low near 31F.
Monday: Mix of sun/clouds (especially PM), breezy and chilly. High 46-50F.
Monday Night: Clear and cold, but much less wind. Low near 30F most spots, but wouldn't be shocked to see OWD dip as low as the mid 20s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy, 46-50F again.
Tonight: Mostly clear and breezy, much milder than last night. Temps holding near 50F for most of the night, but may quickly drop into the mid/upper 40s late depending on timing of FROPA.
Tomorrow: A sunny/milder start but stratocu likely to "bleed" southward from northern New England during the PM. Midday high as warm as 58-62F but temps likely to slip back through the 50s during the PM. Gusty NW wind developing by midday.
Tomorrow Night: Clearing skies, breezy and cold! Low near 31F.
Monday: Mix of sun/clouds (especially PM), breezy and chilly. High 46-50F.
Monday Night: Clear and cold, but much less wind. Low near 30F most spots, but wouldn't be shocked to see OWD dip as low as the mid 20s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and breezy, 46-50F again.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Friday, April 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Forecast for Thursday 12/24
Today (Christmas Eve): Generally overcast, but not quite as cold. Highs ranging from 33 along the lakeshore...to 29 in Buffalo...to 27 north and east.
Tonight: Decreasing cloud cover, especially after midnight. Becoming windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 40 mph toward morning. Lows ranging from 33 along the lakeshore and in the higher terrain...to 25 in Buffalo...to around 20 north and east and in the sheltered valleys of the Southern Tier.
Tomorrow (Christmas): Increasing clouds with rain developing around 2-3PM. Rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in some elevated interior valleys across the Southern Tier. Becoming very windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 55 mph later in the day. Highs ranging from 40 along the lakeshore...to 37 in Buffalo...to 35 in some elevated Southern Tier valleys.
Tomorrow Night: Steady rain ending by 7PM, but remaining overcast with a chance of showers for the rest of the night. Very windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 60 mph at times...mainly through midnight. Temperatures holding steady around 40 near the lakeshore...to 37 in Buffalo...to 35 in some elevated Southern Tier valleys.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, mainly through 2-3PM. Diminishing winds along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures steady or slowly falling through the 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and colder with an increasing chance of snow showers. Localized areas of heavier lake effect snow developing in the evening...mainly south of Buffalo. High near 29. Low near 25.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers. Localized areas of heavier lake effect snow...mainly south of Buffalo. High near 27. Low near 23.
Tuesday: Partly sunny windy and very cold with a chance of snow showers. High near 20. Low near 16.
Tonight: Decreasing cloud cover, especially after midnight. Becoming windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 40 mph toward morning. Lows ranging from 33 along the lakeshore and in the higher terrain...to 25 in Buffalo...to around 20 north and east and in the sheltered valleys of the Southern Tier.
Tomorrow (Christmas): Increasing clouds with rain developing around 2-3PM. Rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in some elevated interior valleys across the Southern Tier. Becoming very windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 55 mph later in the day. Highs ranging from 40 along the lakeshore...to 37 in Buffalo...to 35 in some elevated Southern Tier valleys.
Tomorrow Night: Steady rain ending by 7PM, but remaining overcast with a chance of showers for the rest of the night. Very windy along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo with gusts approaching 60 mph at times...mainly through midnight. Temperatures holding steady around 40 near the lakeshore...to 37 in Buffalo...to 35 in some elevated Southern Tier valleys.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, mainly through 2-3PM. Diminishing winds along the immediate lakeshore and in the higher terrain south of Buffalo. Temperatures steady or slowly falling through the 30s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and colder with an increasing chance of snow showers. Localized areas of heavier lake effect snow developing in the evening...mainly south of Buffalo. High near 29. Low near 25.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow showers. Localized areas of heavier lake effect snow...mainly south of Buffalo. High near 27. Low near 23.
Tuesday: Partly sunny windy and very cold with a chance of snow showers. High near 20. Low near 16.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Forecast for Wednesday 12/23
Today: Clouds and limited sun with a chance of snow showers, mainly to the north and east of Buffalo. Sunshine will be a bit more prevalent across the Southern Tier. Brisk and cold with highs ranging from 25 in Buffalo to 21 in the higher terrain.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, mainly to the north and east of Buffalo. Lows ranging from the mid 20s along the lakeshore to near 20 in Buffalo...but dipping well into the teens in Southern Tier valleys.
Christmas Eve: Mostly cloudy with a chance of early morning snow showers to the north and east of Buffalo. Becoming mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs ranging from 32 along the lakeshore...to 29 in Buffalo...to 27 north and east.
Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon...steadiest from 1PM until 4PM. Rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in some elevated interior valleys across the Southern Tier. High near 37. Low near 25.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain likely, possibly changing to snow late in the day. High near 40. Low near 35.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers and areas of lake effect snow. High near 28. Low near 24.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers and areas of lake effect snow. High near 23. Low near 19.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, mainly to the north and east of Buffalo. Lows ranging from the mid 20s along the lakeshore to near 20 in Buffalo...but dipping well into the teens in Southern Tier valleys.
Christmas Eve: Mostly cloudy with a chance of early morning snow showers to the north and east of Buffalo. Becoming mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs ranging from 32 along the lakeshore...to 29 in Buffalo...to 27 north and east.
Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy with rain likely in the afternoon...steadiest from 1PM until 4PM. Rain may begin as a period of freezing rain in some elevated interior valleys across the Southern Tier. High near 37. Low near 25.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain likely, possibly changing to snow late in the day. High near 40. Low near 35.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers and areas of lake effect snow. High near 28. Low near 24.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy and cold with snow showers and areas of lake effect snow. High near 23. Low near 19.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Special Notice
I will be away at Jay Peak VT from today into early next week. My next scheduled forecast will be posted on Tuesday, December 22nd. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, and thank you for your understanding.
Justin
Justin
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